Coronavirus cases fall 90%, Bay Area counties move closer to reopening
California continued to show a dramatic decline in the number of COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, and in the Bay Area, several counties were moving closer to making their first progress in months in the state’s reopening tiers — back to a world where indoor dining, movie theaters and other activities are once again allowed.
“There’s a light at the end of the tunnel,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said at a news conference Wednesday in Riverside County.
The shift has been dramatic in recent weeks as the holiday surge in cases has abated. California’s statewide number of new COVID-19 cases has fallen a dramatic 90% — from 42,655 a month ago on Jan. 14 to 4,090 on Wednesday, Newsom noted. The number of people hospitalized has been reduced 38% over the past two weeks, and the number of ICU patients has dropped 33%.
“We are in a very different place than we have been because of all of your hard work — each and every one of you doing your part,” Newsom said, speaking at a vaccine clinic for farmworkers at Sea View packing company in Coachella.
The optimism came on a day state officials announced a new deal to provide relief payments and grants for millions of Californians and businesses hit hard by the pandemic.
Meanwhile, only 3.3% of all tests are coming back positive for COVID-19, after California’s positivity rate had climbed above 14% last month.
The steady downward trend could be reversed if new strains of coronavirus from South Africa, the United Kingdom and other areas spread in California.
But for now, the downward trend, and increasing number of vaccines, is moving several Bay Area counties closer to the red tier, which allows businesses to more broadly open, from the purple tier, where all nine Bay Area counties currently sit.
Six sparsely populated counties in California have already moved to the red or orange tiers in recent weeks based on lowered case numbers — Del Norte, Trinity, Plumas, Sierra, Alpine and Mariposa. Seven counties in and around the Bay Area are close to advancing, led by San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties, with Santa Clara, Alameda, Sonoma and nearby Santa Cruz counties not far behind.
State health officials release updated tier information every Tuesday.
When counties fall into the red tier, restaurants are allowed to reopen for indoor — not just outdoor — service at 25% capacity or 100 people, whichever is fewer. Also, movie theaters, zoos, aquariums and museums can re-open at 25% capacity. Gyms can reopen indoors at 10% capacity. And retail stores can increase their capacity from 10% to 25%.
The red tier also allows for more competitive youth sports to be played, including baseball and softball games. However, counties can set their own stricter rules to slow reopening, which a few counties, including Santa Clara County, have done in the past.
How close are Bay Area counties to reaching that mark?
The adjusted case rate in San Francisco and Marin County fell to 8.9 per 100,000 residents, according to the state’s metrics released Tuesday, which give credit for high rates of testing in addition to measuring the per-capita infection rate. In San Mateo County, it sank to 9.6 per 100,000.
For a county to exit purple and enter the red tier, its adjusted case rate must fall below 7 per 100,000, and its weekly positivity rate cannot be higher than 8%. Every county in the Bay Area already meets the red tier’s positivity rate threshold.
Here’s an overview of the most recent numbers released by CDPH (adjusted case rate, positivity rate):
- Alameda: 12.6, 3.6%
- Contra Costa: 16.4, 4.6%
- Marin: 8.9, 2.4%
- Napa: 14.2, 4.6%
- San Francisco: 8.9, 2.6%
- San Mateo: 9.6, 2.8%
- Santa Clara: 10.9, 3.2%
- Santa Cruz: 12.2, 3.5%
- Solano: 18.4, 5.3%
- Sonoma: 13.8, 4.0%
On Tuesday at an event in Los Angeles, Newsom predicted that “a substantial” number of counties in California will move into the red tier next week and the following week.
The availability of vaccines in California is improving but continues to be a significant issue. As of Wednesday, California has administered 6.3 million doses — more than any other state and sixth highest in the world –– behind the United States, China, the European Union, the United Kingdom, India and Israel. But California has 40 million people, 30 million of them who need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.
The state received 1.08 million doses from the federal government last week. This week, it will receive 1.23 million. Next week it expects 1.32 million, Newsom said.
“That’s good. That’s important progress,” Newsom said. He added: “But clearly on the basis of what we are administering on a daily basis, it’s not enough. We run through that supply in less than a week. And that’s the constraint.”
As has been the case for the past year, Northern California continues to have lower COVID-19 case rates than Southern California.
Counties in the Bay Area region make up three of the top 10 lowest case rates in California and six of the 14 lowest rates in the state.
Inyo County along the Nevada border remains the furthest from exiting the purple tier, with an adjusted case rate of 41 per 100,000. It is followed by Kings, Stanislaus, Glenn, Riverside, Santa Barbara, Kern, Merced and Sutter counties, all with adjusted case rates above 25 per 100,000.
The next update to the tiers is due Tuesday, Feb. 23.
If San Francisco or San Mateo were to advance, it would be their first time outside of the purple tier since Nov. 28. Marin County entered the most restrictive tier a week later. When Santa Clara and a number of other Bay Area counties eventually exit purple, it will be their first time in a less restrictive tier since Nov. 16.
A total of seven counties have not moved from the purple tier since the state implemented the reopening system at the end of August: Sonoma and Monterey in or around the Bay Area; Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Imperial in Southern California; and Madera and Tulare counties in the San Joaquin Valley.
View more on Silicon Valley