Sometime in 2024, the Federal Reserve will declare it won its war on inflation.
Fears of a recession will ease. The news should boost stock prices. Lower interest rates likely will be a boon to house hunters.
Yet, any grocery shopper who’s paying attention at the checkout counter will ask, “What are they talking about?”
Pandemic-fueled inflation made a mess out of numerous household budgets. High food costs have been one particularly harsh result.
California’s cost of living, for example, got 19% pricier since 2019, according to my trusty spreadsheet’s average of regional Consumer Price Indexes for Los Angeles-Orange County, San Francisco, San Diego, and the Inland Empire.
Rocketing prices have been particularly intense wherever you stock your fridge and pantry. Groceries in California are 27% more expensive in four years, according to my CPI averages.
- ECONOMIC NEWS: What’s the big trend? Should I be worried? CLICK HERE!
Sadly for those in monetary distress, food is a hard-to-juggle expense. It’s 13% of household spending, according to CPI math. And you can’t put it off like perhaps furniture, clothing, or a car.
Now, you might try to find a bargain when a favorite item gets too expensive. But that’s tricky when food costs soar almost across the board.
Plus, dining out is not a money-saving alternative. Food away from home, by California CPI averages, jumped 23% in four years.
Aisle by aisle
Prices were unkind on almost every grocery aisle. Ponder these budget-busting prices for California food niches tracked by the local CPIs – and why these expenses mushroomed. We rank them by the size of the surge …
Cereals and bakery products: Up 35% in four years. The biggest culprits were grain shortages due to the Ukraine war and small crops affected by climate change.
Other food at home: This grouping – which includes sweets, oils, and frozen meals – jumped 30%. There’s soaring demand for the convenience of frozen foods. Meanwhile, sugar prices were also on the upswing.
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs: The price of proteins rose 28%. Packing house issues limited supplies. Illnesses cut chicken counts, and pricier grain meant pricier feed.
- RENT TRENDS: What’s available – and what are landlords charging? CLICK HERE!
Fruits and vegetables: Up 22% as demand grew with the desire for healthier foods. Costs for energy, packaging, and fertilizers jumped.
Dairy products: Up 21% because keeping cows got very expensive as production and transportation costs ballooned.
Nonalcoholic beverages: Up 20%, a bump tied to costly sugar, electricity, aluminum in cans, and pricier marketing – a big part of the brand-sensitive niche.
Alcoholic beverages: Here’s a bit of odd solace from a niche that was a rare food group with below-average inflation – up 13% in four years. Folks are apparently drinking less.
Bottom line
Often, the economy is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world.
So, when a worker replaces a lost job, there’s likely good vibes for the renewed flow of paychecks. Also, lowered interest rates can make buying a home or car more affordable.
- AFFORDABILITY: Who can afford to live here? What’s being done? CLICK HERE!
But inflation is different. No bureaucratic action – from central bankers or elected officials – will get 2019-like prices back on the grocery shelves. Those financially overwhelmed by food costs will need more than comforting words from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Yes, by December 2023, grocery inflation might have felt a bit tamed. It ran at a 1.9% annual pace in California and 1.3% nationally. That’s well below the slower-improving and overall cost-of-living, which is up 3.9% for 12 months in California and 3.4% across the U.S.
Still, every trip to the grocery store will remind shoppers of the not-so-long-ago days before food got caught in the inflation vortex: The goods in the shopping basket that cost $100 in 2019 now ring up at $127.
