Tomorrow is Christmas Day, and the hard-working elves at the Environmental Protection Agency are putting the finishing touches on tailpipe emission regulations that will govern the auto industry from 2027 to 2032. It is unlikely that Santa will be delivering finalized rules by tomorrow morning, but wish lists from all stakeholders were due on July 5th. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation (AAI) was not shy about asking for shiny new regulations that are less aggressive than those proposed by the EPA. Automakers believe that their sizable investments in battery electric vehicles (BEVs) ought to keep them off the naughty list and that they deserve national tailpipe standards aligned with the goals articulated by President Biden when he first took office.
The AAI is a trade organization representing the interests of virtually all the full-line automakers selling light duty vehicles in the United States. John Bozzella is president and CEO of the powerful lobbying group, and his blog provides valuable insights into the perspective of the heavily regulated auto industry. In a June 28th post, Bozzella summarized his organization’s objections to the stringency of the EPA’s April 12th proposal, which the AAI has characterized as being “neither reasonable nor achievable in the timeframe provided” and a “de facto BEV mandate.” Bozzella emphasizes the argument that the proposal exceeds the ambitious goals advanced by President Biden in Executive Order 14037. Issued in August of 2021,that bold directive established a goal that “fifty percent of all new passenger cars and light trucks sold in 2030 be zero-emission vehicles, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid electric, or fuel cell electric vehicles.” The same specific goal was rearticulated in the administration’s U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization as recently as January of this year. Bozzella is quick to point out that the EPA’s latest proposal moves the goalposts considerably, calibrating stringency with a rosy projection that two thirds of newly sold passenger cars and trucks will be comprised solely of BEVs by 2032. In order for nationwide BEV adoption to advance at that blistering pace, the zero-emission sales share would have to rise to about 60% by 2030, not just 50%, and plug-in hybrid sales would no longer contribute to the targeted percentage, making it even harder to achieve.
The AAI’s strong negative reaction to the April 12th proposal marked a major turning point in its relationship with the Biden Administration. Previously, the AAI had offered its qualified support for Executive Order 14037 and the toughened 2023-2026 tailpipe standards, which were finalized in December of 2021. Two months later, fifteen states led by Texas challenged the scope of the new standards in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. In March of 2023, the AAI filed a brief in that case bolstering the EPA’s arguments. The stunning show of support symbolized the AAI’s guarded optimism that the administration’s environmental aspirations would continue to be reasonable, with regulators acknowledging the many unpredictable factors outside the control of automakers that will impact the pace of BEV adoption between now and 2032.
Unless something changes before this column goes to press, the AAI will not find more agreeable, finalized emission standards waiting under its Christmas tree. It is worth noting that the EPA’s proposal could be softened to align with Executive Order 14037 and still deliver impressive emission reductions, granting the AAI’s fondest wish.
