With coronavirus cases surging in San Francisco, the city’s top health official warned Friday it could be forced to close more businesses and abide by the state’s curfew order as soon as Sunday.
On its current trajectory, San Francisco would reach purple tier status “potentially as early as Sunday,” Dr. Grant Colfax said during a virtual update Friday, and hundreds of people could be hospitalized in the city by the end of December.
“We are on track now to exceed the hospitalizations we’ve seen in past surges, unless we flatten the curve for a third time,” Colfax said. ” … If we continue on this trajectory — a nearly quadrupling of cases over a month — our health-care system could soon be struggling to deal with the burden of the virus and we will have many more people in the hospital and diagnosed with COVID-19.”
There are now 49 people hospitalized in San Francisco, according to data from the California Department of Public Health, an increase of nearly 50% from two weeks ago, when there were 33 patients in city hospitals. At its peak this summer, there were as many as 109 COVID-positive patients hospitalized in San Francisco.
If and when San Francisco reaches the purple tier, gyms, movie theaters and places of worship will all have to shutter indoor operations. Retail will have to cut its capacity in half, to 25%, and nearly all businesses will have to close between the hours of 10 p.m. and 5 a.m., as mandated by the partial shelter-in-place order Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Thursday.
Currently, San Francisco is one of three counties in the Bay Area outside of the most-restrictive purple tier, along with its neighbors to the north, Marin County, and the south, San Mateo County.
However, just three weeks ago, San Francisco was under the least-restrictive state guidelines, showing how rapidly the virus can take hold, Colfax said. The reproductive rate of the virus, or the number of people an average sick person will infect, is now above 1, Colfax said, an indication of widespread transmission.
“This is indicative of how fast the virus is spreading in our city,” he said. “But we can change the course of this surge.”
Colfax repeated his plea for San Franciscans not to travel or gather in large numbers for the coming holidays.
“Let me be clear: This year, do not travel. Stay at home with your immediate household,” Colfax said. “I know we’ve had a very long spring and summer and the temptation to gather is high at this time of year, but our actions now will dictate what happens this winter.”
A negative test isn’t a free pass to come together for holidays, Colfax said.
“Remember, people who test negative can still harbor the virus if they are still early in their infection or if they’re exposed after their test,” Colfax said.
While San Francisco has contained COVID-19 with relative success — the lowest per-capita death rate of any major city and among the lowest infection rates, while testing more per-capita than any other city — its current wave is on pace to exceed any the city has previously seen, according to Colfax.
“I know we’ve had a very long spring and summer and the temptation to gather is high at this time of year,” he said, “but our actions now will dictate what happens this winter.”
